Introduction

Apple made headlines last week with a set of convoluted changes to its App Store business terms in the EU. Tucked away in the fine print is a surprising shift: Apple might be reducing its standard 30% commission to 20% globally. If true, this would mark the first-ever reduction of its iconic 30% cut for all developers and signal a major shift in Apple’s long-defended App Store revenue model.

This isn’t just an EU story — it could have global implications, especially in the context of Apple’s ongoing battles with antitrust regulators in the US, Japan, South Korea, and more. But what exactly did Apple announce? Why are the new terms so confusing? And what does this mean for developers and the app ecosystem?

Let’s break it down.

Apple’s New App Store Rules: What Changed in the EU?

On the surface, Apple’s announcement focused on compliance with the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). The DMA aims to increase competition in digital marketplaces, and Apple, being labeled a "gatekeeper", is required to open up its App Store to alternative payment systems and third-party marketplaces.

However, Apple’s compliance strategy is anything but straightforward.

What’s included — and what’s not

Here’s a breakdown of what the new rules do and don’t cover:

• Not covered: Apps distributed through third-party marketplaces

• Not covered: Static text promotion or communication within the app

• Covered: External links that direct users to the web

• Covered: In-app purchases via third-party payment service providers (PSPs)

In other words, only specific types of linking and payment changes are impacted, leaving plenty of ambiguity.

Apple’s App Store rules come under EU scrutiny — and global change might follow.

The Byzantine Complexity of Apple’s Terms

Critics — including high-profile developers and commentators — quickly slammed the new terms for being unnecessarily complicated.

Developers are confused

Ryan Jones, founder of Flighty and Apple Design Award winner, posted on X:

“Literally nobody I know can figure out what these terms actually mean.”

John Gruber of Daring Fireball blamed both Apple and the EU, but suggested that Apple’s complexity may be intentional. His take? Apple is playing a compliance game by making the rules so dense and tangled that they’re nearly impossible to interpret or criticize effectively.

This tactic is sometimes referred to as "spiteful compliance" — doing the bare minimum, but in the most frustrating way possible. The net result: developers are left unsure about how to proceed, and the public finds it hard to articulate exactly why they’re upset.

New Commission Structures: The Hidden 20% Shift?

Beneath the surface chaos, however, is one line in the terms that caught the attention of seasoned observers:

Under certain conditions, developers who stick with Apple’s IAP in the EU may now pay just 20% commission, instead of the traditional 30%.

A global domino effect?

On paper, this seems like a regional concession. But it would be wildly inconsistent for Apple to offer developers in the EU an 80/20 revenue split, while the rest of the world remains on 70/30.

This asymmetry raises a key question:
Is Apple preparing to roll out the 20% commission rate globally?

Some industry analysts believe this is exactly what’s coming — and soon.

Why Apple Might Cut Its Global Commission to 20%

There are several strong reasons Apple might reduce its App Store commission worldwide — and they go far beyond appeasing EU regulators.

1. Mounting antitrust pressure

Apple is facing intense scrutiny in multiple regions:

• United States: DOJ has launched an antitrust lawsuit focusing on Apple’s iOS ecosystem and App Store practices.

• Japan: Local regulators are pushing for more app store freedom and lower commissions.

• South Korea: Passed laws requiring Apple and Google to allow alternative payment systems.

• India and Australia: Both are investigating the fairness of app store fees.

By preemptively reducing its global commission, Apple could demonstrate good faith and potentially deflate some of these legal challenges.

2. Developer goodwill

Apple has long drawn criticism from developers for taking what many perceive as a hefty 30% tax on creativity. Even with the 15% Small Business Program introduced in 2020, resentment lingers.

A universal shift to 20% could rebuild developer trust, particularly among mid-sized companies that don't qualify for the 15% cut but aren't big enough to swallow 30% without pain.

3. Strategic branding and PR

Let's face it — Apple’s image has taken a hit. A move to 20% could be marketed as a “developer-first” evolution, especially if rolled out during a high-visibility event like a future WWDC or earnings call.

It’s a win-win:

• Developers benefit.

• Apple avoids more regulation.

• The public gets a feel-good story about fairness and innovation.

Apple's Long-Term App Store Strategy: A New Era?

Historically, Apple has been extremely resistant to change when it comes to App Store revenue. The 30% cut has been in place since the launch of the App Store in 2008, and despite mounting pressure, the company has defended it as “industry standard”.

But things are changing fast.

From hardware margins to service revenue

Apple's business model has increasingly shifted toward services revenue — including iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, and yes, the App Store. However, services are under more regulatory and developer scrutiny than ever.

Reducing App Store commission across the board could:

• Sustain long-term platform loyalty

• Reduce legal and compliance costs

• Protect Apple’s recurring service revenue model

What This Means for Developers

If Apple moves to a global 20% commission, developers stand to gain — a lot.

Example earnings difference:

Let’s say an app generates $1 million in in-app purchases annually.

• At 30% commission: Developer keeps $700,000

• At 20% commission: Developer keeps $800,000

• At 15% (Small Business Program): Developer keeps $850,000

That’s an extra $100,000 per year simply due to Apple reducing its cut by 10%. For larger app studios, the difference could reach millions of dollars annually.

Reinvestment in innovation

More money in developer hands could lead to:

• Better app quality

• More hiring and R&D

• Greater ecosystem innovation

EU’s DMA and Global Ripple Effects

The EU Digital Markets Act is having its desired effect: forcing change not just in Europe but across global tech platforms.

We’ve already seen similar ripple effects with:

• Meta and WhatsApp opening up APIs

• Google Play Store billing experiments

• Microsoft pushing for open app stores on Windows

If Apple’s global 20% shift does materialize, it’ll be one of the biggest developer wins in years, triggered by regulatory leverage and developer pressure.

Will Apple Actually Make the 20% Global?

As of now, Apple hasn’t officially announced a worldwide reduction to 20% — but the writing may be on the wall.

Why it’s likely:

• EU changes create a precedent

• Global consistency reduces legal risk

• Developer sentiment needs repair

• Apple is already testing it in a major market

Why it might not happen (yet):

• Apple is appealing the basis of the EU changes

• The company may be testing the waters before going global

• Revenue implications are non-trivial

That said, if the move helps Apple fend off lawsuits and increase developer loyalty, the long-term financial and strategic payoff could easily justify the near-term revenue drop.

Final Thoughts: Apple’s Quiet Revolution?

This might just be the beginning of a quiet revolution in how Apple runs its App Store. What started as a legally enforced adjustment in the EU could lead to a voluntary global shift that redefines developer relations.

While Apple’s reluctance to change has been legendary, the company is also known for making dramatic pivots when the timing is right.

A universal 20% App Store commission could become the next milestone in Apple’s services evolution, aligning better with modern regulatory demands, competitive pressure, and developer needs.

Stay tuned — the next WWDC or antitrust hearing might reveal whether Apple truly intends to make this global.